Billiken Weather Blog

Earth Hour: 2009

2009-03-23T01:37:00.001-05:00

Forecasts are updated

2009-03-17T00:54:00.001-05:00

Forecasts on the website are finally updated! Here's your St. Patrick's day forecast. The luck of the Irish will be with us, as we will see some very comfortable temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to near 80, and generally light winds. A great day to get outside and enjoy the weather!

SLU News 22 for February 15, 2009

2009-02-21T00:03:00.001-06:00

SLU News 22 Update

2009-02-09T20:35:00.001-06:00

Latest Video Forecast

2009-01-25T20:11:00.001-06:00

Weekend Forecast Video

2008-12-12T13:52:00.001-06:00

Video forecast for Friday November 21, 2008

2008-11-21T21:58:00.001-06:00

Here is my forecast for this weekend. I've been busy trying to get everything ready to go on SLU TV this week, now that its ready, I should have more time for blogging!

Video Forecast for November 14, 2008

2008-11-15T02:30:00.001-06:00

Coldest Night Yet

2008-11-10T00:47:00.001-06:00

Tonight (Sunday night) will be the coldest night of the season so far, as temperatures will drop down into the middle 20s for most everyone in the area. Even the city of St. Louis should see a low of 23-25 degrees. Previously, the coolest temperature this season was 29 degrees on the morning of October 28th. Cool temperatures will continue for the next several days, as another storm system spreads clouds and rain over the region which will help to keep temperatures down. Monday morning, the approaching storm system will begin to spread in clouds and temperatures will only reach into the middle 40s. Rain will begin to approach late tomorrow evening, most likely after sunset, and rain will be likely on Tuesday. Once again on Tuesday, temperatures will struggle to reach the middle 40s. The rain should begin to move out by early Wednesday, and we may see some sun by Wednesday afternoon. The afternoon sun should help temperatures to climb into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees for a high.

On Thursday, another system will approach the region from the northwest. This system will bring another chance of rain on Thursday and Friday, as well as a return to much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

Election Day is here!

2008-11-03T23:14:00.001-06:00

Election day is finally here, and the weather could not be nicer for everyone to get out and vote! Temperatures will be in the middle 50s when polls open in the morning at 6am, and should climb to around 77 by the afternoon. The clear warm weather will continue through the evening with temperatures falling to around 70 by the time polls close at 7pm. There should be no excuses for not getting out to vote tomorrow! Below is your election day forecast:

The beautiful weather will continue into Wednesday, when we will see highs in the middle 70s. Late in the day Wednesday, clouds will begin to overspread the region as a storm system approaches from the west. This storm system will drag a strong cold front though the area on Thursday, which will likely bring rain and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the St. Louis region in a slight risk area for severe weather on Thursday. Stay tuned as this storm system approaches, as any change in the timing of the front will greatly affect our chances of severe weather. After the cold front passes, cold air will rush into the region, and drop highs well below average. Highs on Friday should be in the lower 50s, if not the upper 40a, and on Saturday, we will struggle to make it out of the lower 40s for highs, with lows in the lower to middle 30s.

Warm Weather Continues

2008-11-02T22:01:00.002-06:00

I hope you were able to get out and enjoy the warm weather this weekend. We really had some great weather for the beginning of November. Highs this weekend were in the middle 70s, which is about 10-15 degrees above our normal high of 60 for this time of year. Temperatures for the beginning of the workweek are going to remain very mild, with highs continuing to be in the mid to upper 70s. In fact, we could possibly be close to 80 degrees on Monday and Tuesday.

On Wednesday, a storm system will be approaching from the west, and will begin to affect our weather. Clouds will begin to overspread the region from the west, and may hold our temperatures in the low 70s for highs on Wednesday. On Thursday, the storm system will bring a Cold front through the region. The front will likely be accompanied by rain and thunderstorms. Depending on the timing of the front, there is the possibility for some strong to severe thunderstorms, with heavy rain, large hail, and high winds. After the front passes on Thursday, cooler air will filter in and bring temperatures back below normal, with highs in the low 50s or upper 40s possible on Friday and through the weekend. After this storm, I expect we will remain in an active pattern for the next several weeks, and we may be looking at our first prolonged period of cold weather toward the middle of this month.

Welcome

2008-10-30T02:38:00.001-05:00

Welcome to the new Billiken Weather Blog. Here you will find my detailed forecasts for the St. Louis University area as well as discussion about the current and forecasted weather. From time to time I will also post some of the tools that are used in forecasting and explain how to use them.

I hope you will enjoy this blog and hopefully you will find it helpful as well!

Expected some changes to the format in the next few days as I tweak little odds and ends making this look as nice as possible.

Test

2008-10-29T02:01:00.001-05:00

This is a test of the new Billiken Weather Blog.

This is only a test.

Particularly Dangerous Situation

2008-06-15T10:17:00.001-05:00

The National Weather Service has issued a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Kansas City Metro area until 5pm this evening. A PDS severe thunderstorm watch means that severe wind gusts in excess of 90mph and hail greater than 3" are possible in the watch area. This is a very dangerous situation. Stay tuned to local media and NOAA weather radio for further information and possible warnings.

Severe Weather to the West

2008-05-24T02:07:00.001-05:00

Slight Risk for Storms

2008-05-23T16:54:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction center new severe weather outlook now has Kansas City in a slight risk for severe weather.

Here is the assessment from the SPC:
...MISSOURI...
   A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL MO AND
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG AND NORTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN
   THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
   FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

High Risk for West Central Kansas

2008-05-22T15:20:00.001-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a high risk for severe weather for parts of western and central Kansas.

Our weather will remain fairly calm this afternoon, with a slight chance for thunderstorm redevelopment late this afternoon and overnight.

Thunderstorm Developing Tonight

2008-05-22T01:25:00.002-05:00

Thunderstorms will be developing late tonight into tomorrow morning as a warm front tries to push through the area. Storms will initially form to our southwest along the front and then they will build and move to the northeast across the city. Here is MICRO Cast HD for 5am tomorrow morning.

You can see that heavy thunderstorms are forecast to be moving through the area around that time. Thunderstorms are most likely in our are between 4-8am tomorrow morning. There may be some heavy rain, but severe weather is not expected at this time. As the rain moves away, it will leave behind rain cooled air that could keep our temperatures in the 60s tomorrow afternoon!

Midweek Rain Chance

2008-05-21T00:34:00.001-05:00

An interesting weather pattern will be setting up this week. We are moving into what many meteorologists call an "Omega Block." A quick explanation from the KSHB blog here:

"The symbol ω (lower-case letter) is used to represent what we call an Omega Block. A huge, unseasonably strong upper low is now forming over the western part of the nation. It is helping throw up a big ridge in the middle part of the country which in turn is helping fuel a deep upper low over the Great Lakes. Look below at the forecast map for Thursday morning and notice the letter omega":

This pattern would normal be very warm and dry for this part of the country, with the huge ridge of high pressure building all the way up into Canada. But this week, a storm system will get caught up underneath the flow, and will cause a warm front to set up to our south. We will have easterly breezes bringing in cooler air north of the front, while south of the front it will be very hot and humid. Map posted below.

This warm air trying to force itself northward into the cool air will likely cause showers and thunderstorms to form Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There could be some heavy rainfall. The GFS gives us between .5 and 1 inch of rain, while the NAM, posted below, gives up almost 2 inches! This will be very interesting to watch develop over the next couple of days, as the models want to keep rain in the forecast through Saturday!

Getting Back Up to Speed- May 1-2 Recap

2008-05-21T00:15:00.001-05:00

I have been having some issues getting blogs posted lately. It took two days for the post below to show up. Hopefully now things are back to normal.

Quick recap of the severe weather threat that I blogged about way back at the beginning of May. We ha two rounds of severe weather. The first round was in the form of tornadic supercells that produced rotation over the metro and a couple isolated tornadoes. Later that night, a very strong bow echo moved across the city, producing widespread 60-80mph winds and wind damage. The bow echo also produced two tornadoes in the northland, one and EF-2 and one an EF-3. Here are a couple of radar images from that night.

Test New Upload

2008-05-19T23:03:00.003-05:00

Testing of new upload service.

Test only

Moderate Risk of Severe Storms Today

2008-05-01T10:43:00.005-05:00

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate risk for eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri, including the western portions of the Kansas City area. The main risks today will be damaging winds and large hail, but there is also a risk for tornadoes in any discrete supercells that form out ahead of the cold front. If these storms form, they could be very explosive and severe. It is likely that a tornado watch or severe thunderstorm watch will be issued for our area later today.
Here is today's setup:

Storms will initially fire along the dry line/cold front in central Kansas, and then move our way. The threat for isolated severe storms will begin around or a little after 6pm as storms may try to form out ahead of the dry line. If the storms remain discrete, they will likely be super cell thunderstorms, with a risk for tornadoes and very large hail. Eventually, the storms should evolve into a squall and the threat for tornadoes will go down, but the threat for damaging winds and large hail will remain. This setup is still evolving, and needs to be watched closely.

SPC Severe Risk:

Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow

2008-04-30T11:11:00.004-05:00

The Storm Prediction center has placed the Kansas City area in a slight risk of severe weather for tomorrow afternoon. Some people have discussed the potential for a significant episode of severe weather, however, this is highly dependant on several factors that are still highly suspect. One thing I am very confidant in is the moisture return. I am confident that dew points tomorrow afternoon will be reaching into the lower 60s. However, this moisture return may cause a stratus deck to from, and inhibit daytime heating and reduce our instability. This could reduce our risk for severe storms. The more likely areas to receive severe weather will to be out north, in NE Kansas, SE Nebraska, and NW Missouri where there will be more upper level support that will overcome the lack of daytime heating. Also, there will be an increased risk to our south were there will be more sunshine, and the atmosphere will be further destabilize. This is all dependant on the quality of the moisture return tomorrow afternoon, and whether or not a status deck forms. If the clouds break up early enough, we could receive enough sun to destabilized the atmosphere enough to support supercell storms tomorrow evening.

Here is the latest severe weather outlook from the SPC:

Look for updates later today and during the day tomorrow.

Warm and Windy Start to Spring

2008-03-20T23:19:00.006-05:00

The Midwest needs some time to dry out this week after many areas received record rainfall. Many parts of Missouri and Illinois received over a FOOT of rain in two days. Several rivers are projected to reach record flood stages this week. Below is the radar estimates for parts of southeastern Missouri.

Locally, we had a refreshingly warm start to spring, which officially started at 12:48 this morning. Highs today were generally in the mid 60s with low 70s off to the southwest. Another nice day tomorrow with highs in the mid 60s by noon, and then a clod front will pass through the area and beginning to tone temperatures down a little. We will be in the middle 50s by evening, on our way down into the 30s. Highs on Saturday my not get out of the 40s depending on cloud cover. Saturday night into Sunday a weak disturbance will slide down out of Nebraska and may be strong enough to squeeze out a few rain or snow showers. There is a small chance that you could start out your Eastern morning with a bit of snow! At the moment it does not look like anything significant, but we'll keep out eye on it. After that the warm weather returns next week, before a stronger storm looks poised to affect the region later in the week.

Enjoy the warm weather tomorrow!!

--------------------------------------------------------------

Here are some rainfall totals from the St. Patrick's Day rain.

Soggy St. Patrick's Day

2008-03-17T10:21:00.004-05:00

We'll need the luck of the Irish today if we want to get St. Patrick's Day Parade in dry, and it doesn't look like it's going to come through this time. Rain moved in early this morning and is here to stay for the most part. It may let up at times during the day, but otherwise, look for a steady light to moderate rain continuing through at least noon, most likely into the early afternoon. We may see more redevelopment this evening as a stationary boundary tries to lift north across the region. It may make it as far north as the southern reaches of Kansas City before it begins to progress southward again. This boundary will be the focus for more heavy rain and thunderstorms this evening. There may even be some strong storms along this boundary, although severe storms are not very likely. Total rainfall will likely be between .5 and 1" of rain, with areas that experiencing thunderstorms receiving upwards of 1.5".

The data this morning continues to hint at a possible storm this weekend for Easter Sunday. So make sure to keep up to date as we track this next storm that could possibly affect the region this weekend.